return2ozma@lemmy.world to Asklemmy@lemmy.ml · 3 months agoWhat's your prediction for the 2024 US election?message-squaremessage-square92fedilinkarrow-up11arrow-down10file-text
arrow-up11arrow-down1message-squareWhat's your prediction for the 2024 US election?return2ozma@lemmy.world to Asklemmy@lemmy.ml · 3 months agomessage-square92fedilinkfile-text
minus-squareDessalines@lemmy.mllinkfedilinkarrow-up0·edit-23 months agoThe current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41% https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
minus-squarePandemanium@lemm.eelinkfedilinkarrow-up0·3 months agoWikipedia lists Real Clear Politics as having become more conservative and right leaning in recent years. Their polls may not be as accurate.
minus-squareDessalines@lemmy.mllinkfedilinkarrow-up0·3 months agoThat’s not a poll. It’s an aggregate / average of betting markets.
minus-squareAdramis@midwest.sociallinkfedilinkarrow-up0·3 months agoMaybe I’m crazy, but I feel like gamblers have a heavy right lean.
minus-squarePolandIsAStateOfMind@lemmy.mllinkfedilinkarrow-up0·edit-23 months agoYou’re not wrong, it’s because leftists are generally more critical of gambling.
minus-squareDessalines@lemmy.mllinkfedilinkarrow-up0·3 months agoGamblers don’t always get it right, but this page has some interesting history: https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html Gamblers, polls, and the NYT’s most sophisticated prediction algorithms all got it very wrong in 2016, and severely overestimating hillary and underestimating trump. But of those three, the prediction markets were the least wrong.
minus-squareZacpod@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·3 months agoWell that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
minus-squaredanjoubu@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·3 months agoA 34 time convicted felon child rapist pussy grabber racist con man
minus-squareCanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.orglinkfedilinkarrow-up0·edit-23 months agoYou could keep adding to that. People are big mad and think electing a brain-damaged version of Mussolini makes some kind of point.
minus-squarejohannesvanderwhales@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·3 months agoBetting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
minus-squareDessalines@lemmy.mllinkfedilinkarrow-up0·3 months agoThis page has some background, but historically they’ve always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they’ve been around.
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Wikipedia lists Real Clear Politics as having become more conservative and right leaning in recent years. Their polls may not be as accurate.
That’s not a poll. It’s an aggregate / average of betting markets.
Maybe I’m crazy, but I feel like gamblers have a heavy right lean.
You’re not wrong, it’s because leftists are generally more critical of gambling.
Gamblers don’t always get it right, but this page has some interesting history: https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html
Gamblers, polls, and the NYT’s most sophisticated prediction algorithms all got it very wrong in 2016, and severely overestimating hillary and underestimating trump. But of those three, the prediction markets were the least wrong.
Well that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
A 34 time convicted felon child rapist pussy grabber racist con man
You could keep adding to that.
People are big mad and think electing a brain-damaged version of Mussolini makes some kind of point.
Betting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
This page has some background, but historically they’ve always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they’ve been around.