• gapbetweenus@feddit.de
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    10 months ago

    I think this more of a perspective thing, that might be related to free will vs. determinism.

    In the end the set of possible outcomes and their probabilities are the same.

    Lenin or Trotkij taking power leads to rather different outcomes in my opinion.

    • CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org
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      10 months ago

      (I assume you mean Stalin, unless this is a different guy I don’t know about)

      So far, yeah. I estimated two centuries for individual actions to wash out, though, and that was just one ago. On the other hand, if it would have lead to some complex chain of events ending in certain MAD, that could take millennia to become a human footnote, and would leave extinctions that may not ever be reversed. The 20th century was kind of a metastable point where everything is amplified.

      I hear Trotsky was also pretty unpopular. He was Lenin’s chosen heir, so I’m guessing he had a chance, but even if Stalin had died at some point pre-revolution it’s possible Zinoviev or someone would have taken his place.

      • gapbetweenus@feddit.de
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        10 months ago

        No I actually meant Leon Trotsky, just wrote his name from memory. He wanted more the Cambodian way of communism.

        So far, yeah. I estimated two centuries for individual actions to wash out

        Even if I would accept that estimation, in those two hundred years the lives of many humans are greatly impacted, which is for me all that matters in the end. Since I like to view history from human point of view this seem pretty relevant. If you take an impartial abstract point of view - than nothing really matters since the universe will disappear anyway at some point. Maybe that’s the difference in our perception.