This isn’t meant to be a discussion on the morality of the embargo, but the affects of the embargo ending for both countries. These affects can be political, economic, or social.
The US economy is so gigantic compared to Cuba’s that I don’t see it changing much at all for the US—maybe some medical advancements. For Cuba it would mean being able to acquire goods at more reasonable rates and probably a much bigger tourist trade if they’re not careful. Edit and better internet, I hear that’s important.
A lot more tourism to Cuba from the US.
Same thing that would happen if sanctions on Afghanistan were lifted. Regular people’s lives would improve as the country could import what they need (Cuba is really lacking in cement and medical supplies for example iirc, and they can’t import them cuz of the embargo).
Obviously not much would change in the US, aside from some people realizing socialism isn’t too bad when you’re not a tiny country sanctioned and blockaded by the most war-mongering nation in the world.
The US would start importing Havana Club
I’m thinking about a holiday there - friends who’ve been really enjoyed it. The beaches, the food, the music. https://www.onthebeach.co.uk/destinations/caribbean/cuba
Even during the ‘open’ Obama years, tourism for Americans was severely limited by the lack of banking interchange between US banks and Cuban ATMs and credit card networks. You have to bring cash and use a currency exchange, and if you run out you have no way of getting more money from your American bank. Other countries’ networks don’t have this issue, but it would need to be fixed for Americans to visit and spend money.
I’m glad the internal currencies of CUC vs CUP have been resolved, though a massive influx of tourist dollars would strain the existing economic systems of Cubans being paid for jobs other than tourism.
It would improve living standards and mortality rates for Cuban citizens.
For the US, the change would be minimal. The economy of Cuba is so small by comparison and they don’t have a heavy industry or tech sector to offer much to the US economy. Most outflows of money would likely be in tourism by US citizens to Cuba. And maybe some businesses would find ways to offshore some work. But again, I think the overall impact would be small.
As for Cuba, it really depends on the Cuban Government. Trade with the US and tourism are likely to have a much larger impact (as a percentage of GDP) on Cuba. The country could well see a sizeable influx of foreign cash. Managed well, this could create a lot of opportunity for the Cuban people. Managed by a corrupt regime, intent on enriching itself and it’s friends, this could lead to the same type of misery which usually results from corrupt government.
realisticly, i dont think much outside of trade restrictions to cuba would help them. politically on the states side whichever party removes it loses a lot of Cuban voters who migrated to Florida who are in the camp of not liking Cuba. can potentially turn the state the other parties color goven how swingstatey Florida is on its own.
Florida has already gone pretty Republican, so I don’t imagine that changing.
You don’t think trade with the world’s biggest economy and closest physical neighbor would have much of anmeffect?
not saying trade wont have an effect, its just definitely on one side, it would be minimal, and Cuba for sure would benefit (heavily) from not having import restrictions. Relationships between the twp countries at least immediately, would not change.
Right.
That said, Cuba doesn’t really have import restriction, it’s the US has export restrictions.
Not exactly.
Any ship that docks in Cuba is barred entry to US ports in the next 180 days.
The US can also sanction foriegn companies that trade with Cuba.
It’s not a blockade but it has a chilling effect on trade.
yeah effectively the same if its in context of just the two countries i guess. Regardless, Cuba has a lot to gain on being able to trade for cheap produce made in the U.S, and at least, have another large country to compete for sales outside of Brazil (whose fast tracked into being virtually the largest agrarian society these days)
the end result is basically Cuban Tourism goes up, U.S exports to Cuba drives food prices down.
The food prices falling might actually result in a net negative impact on their economy.
If local producers can’t viably compete with aggressively low priced American crops, they’ll lose out heavily.On the whole, the tourism will probably bring in a lot of money, but a good chunk of it would leave the island immediately, and they’d have to wrangle a flood of goods they didn’t have to compete with before.
(A lot of Caribbean islands end up in situations where the major tourist hubs are owned by American companies that pay locals as little as possible and then ship the profits back to the US. So the island just sees the benefit of 40 jobs, not 200 high paying tourists a month)the type of crops cuba grows arent the main exports that the U.S typically goes through. iirc theyre big on sugarcane and rice, neither of which are major US exports reletive to the global scale of exports.
at worst, the citrus market in cuba crumbles, but thats less significant than the above two.
We actually export a huge amount of rice. https://fas.usda.gov/data/commodities/rice (3 million tons exported, to Cuba’s 200k total production). We’re actually the fifth largest exporter.
We also produce more sugar cane, but Brazil is the real power player there.Cuba wouldn’t be alone in being injured by US agricultural exports. Our volume and low cost can, for example, make people prefer imported American grains over domestic production, even if they’re different types.
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I was curious about that lung cancer treatment and found this Snopes article. Sounds like in Cuba it’s demonstrated that it can add several months to some people’s lives after they’re diagnosed with lung cancer. Phase II clinical trials are underway in the US as of last year, and preliminary results show particular success in combination with other existing treatments. They’ve expanded the trial to cover some other forms of cancer too
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Aren’t cubans still banned from using the real money?
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There was a cuban peso and convertible peso, but apparently they’ve been merged 3 years ago. So the sanctions probably are the main barrier to free trade now.
Do you think medical tourism would become big?
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No. It is due to the Cuban protests.
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It would be interesting if they had an “I Love Lucy” experience in Havana as a tourist trap.
Massive inequality growth in Cuba
A TON of political mudslinging in the US that would die down after a few news cycles and a great deal of improvement to Cuba’s economy due to the dropping of the embargoes due to increased trade and tourism from the U.S.
Substantially? Not much (other than improving Cuba’s economy). This isn’t the 1960s, and “Ooo! Scary Cooommmunism!” thing isn’t the political bulwark it once was. Aside from a bunch of old bags in congress full of pace makers and life-extending pharmaceuticals, the vast majority of Americans couldn’t give a shit.
I have no idea, but I’d be stocking up on cigars like a motherfuck. Trump putting the kibosh on bringing Cuban cigars back into the US still chaps my ass.
Vietnam was embargoed until the 90s, and dropping it basically allowed the soft power of the US to do it’s thing. 'Nam isn’t really an ally of the US, they consider themselves neutral, but they’re undeniably very friendly. I suspect that a generation of trade and tourism could do the same to our relationship with Cuba and might result in softening attitudes among Cuban-Americans as they reestablish contact with their families and reconcile lingering animosity from the revolution.
I think this would also work for the DPRK, Iran, and others. Trade is really nice and children are rarely willing to carry the grudges of their parents.
